Hacker News with Generative AI: Predictions

Five Things AI Will Not Change (metastable.org)
In 1983, when I was ten, 100 million people watched the TV movie “The Day After,” an audience five times larger than the Game of Thrones finale garnered in 2019. The cold-war era film graphically depicted the aftermath of an all-out nuclear exchange between the United States and the Soviet Union: mass casualties, radiation poisoning, the collapse of infrastructure, and the breakdown of society.

Artificial Intelligence, Culture, Predictions, Technology

14 points by pbw 6 days ago | 4 comments

Might Be Time for Me to Collect Being Right Points for My Bluesky Prediction (daringfireball.net)
Yours truly back in May 2023, in a thread on Mastodon (at the time, you needed an invitation code to get into Bluesky, and it was just a few months after Musk’s takeover and remaking of what was once Twitter):

Social Media, Predictions, Twitter, Bluesky

11 points by hn1986 8 days ago | 0 comments

Angelina Jolie Was Right About Computers (wired.com)
“RISC architecture is gonna change everything.” Those absurdly geeky, incredibly prophetic words were spoken 30 years ago. Today, they’re somehow truer than ever.

Technology, History, Computing, Predictions, Angelina Jolie

21 points by vdupras 9 days ago | 2 comments

No one knows what the hell an AI agent is (techcrunch.com)
Silicon Valley is bullish on AI agents. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said agents will “join the workforce” this year. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella predicted that agents will replace certain knowledge work. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said that Salesforce’s goal is to be “the number one provider of digital labor in the world” via the company’s various “agentic” services.

Artificial Intelligence, Business, Predictions, Technology

31 points by marban 18 days ago | 14 comments

Dario Amodei: "In 12 months, nearly all code may be generated by AI." (twitter.com)
Something went wrong, but don’t fret — let’s give it another shot.

Artificial Intelligence, Programming, Predictions

6 points by bblcla 22 days ago | 10 comments

A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress (lesswrong.com)
This isn't really a "timeline", as such – I don't know the timings – but this is my current, fairly optimistic take on where we're heading.

Artificial Intelligence, Predictions

204 points by suryao 24 days ago | 215 comments

Bitcoin Without a Fight (loeber.substack.com)
Dial the clock back by thirteen years. It’s the spring of 2012. Bitcoin is trading at five dollars a coin. You ask me “what would the world look like at $100,000 a coin?” When Bitcoin is 20,000 times more valuable? It’s unimaginable. Maybe the financial systems of some small countries have failed, and been taken over completely by Bitcoin. Surely it has become a popular currency.

Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Finance, Speculation, Predictions

13 points by n0rlant1s 24 days ago | 3 comments

Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP (atlantafed.org)
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28.

Economy, GDP, Predictions, Atlanta Fed

219 points by awnird 30 days ago | 248 comments

The Drift of Things: David Goodman Croly's Glimpses of the Future (1888) (publicdomainreview.org)
After the Irish-American journalist David Goodman Croly successfully predicted the Panic of 1873 and the results of several political elections, he hung up his newspaperman’s hat and went into the forecasting business.

History, Journalism, Predictions, 19th Century

10 points by benbreen 31 days ago | 1 comments

Stephen Diehl: The Case Against Crypto in 2025 (stephendiehl.com)
In 2020, I wrote what became a widely-circulated critique of cryptocurrency and its implications for our financial system. At the time, I desperately hoped to be proven wrong. As a technologist who deeply believes in the potential of technology to strengthen democratic institutions, I took no pleasure in forecasting the corrosive potential of crypto assets. Unfortunately, the intervening years have borne out many of my predictions with shocking prescience.

Cryptocurrency, Finance, Technology, Predictions

12 points by colesantiago 32 days ago | 4 comments

Elon Musk fans believe he can make Dogecoin the currency of Earth (arstechnica.com)
At a time when many analysts are declaring memecoins dead, the most popular memecoin of all time, Dogecoin, not only perseveres but appears likely to become more mainstream than ever in 2025.

Cryptocurrency, Dogecoin, Elon Musk, Finance, Predictions

10 points by LorenDB 34 days ago | 8 comments

Project 2025 Observer (project2025.observer)
Project 2025 Tracker

Project Management, Future, Predictions

190 points by napolux 44 days ago | 57 comments

I use AI to predict the future (gwintrob.com)
I compete in an annual predictions contest with a group of friends. Each January, we make a series of guesses about the economy, politics, etc. to see who is most accurate at the end of the year. Beyond the cash prize, the winner gets a green Masters jacket and the loser has to give a short presentation on how they made their predictions.

Artificial Intelligence, Predictions, Competitions, Friends, Economy

6 points by gwintrob 49 days ago | 0 comments

Orienting to 3 year AGI timelines (lesswrong.com)

Artificial Intelligence, Timelines, Predictions

4 points by paulpauper 51 days ago | 0 comments

Datacenter energy use to more than double by 2030 thanks AI's insatiable thirst (theregister.com)
AI's thirst for electricity will see datacenter energy use more than double by the end of the decade – just five years from now – according to the latest forecast from investment banker Goldman Sachs.

Artificial Intelligence, Energy, Datacenters, Predictions

3 points by LinuxBender 53 days ago | 0 comments

Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995) (openculture.com)

Carl Sagan, Predictions, American Culture, History

152 points by rcarmo 57 days ago | 164 comments

Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years (ycombinator.com)
I started to get more curious on this, especially beyond the obligatory “genAI will do everything.” What are your thoughts on societal impact.

Artificial Intelligence, Society, Future, Technology, Predictions

16 points by doubtfuluser 59 days ago | 26 comments

Black Swan author warns of future selloffs 2-3 times worse than DeepSeek shock (fortune.com)

Finance, Predictions, Market Analysis, Investment, Economics

5 points by this_weekend 59 days ago | 2 comments

2025 will likely be another brutal year of failed startups, data suggests (techcrunch.com)
More startups shut down in 2024 than the year prior, according to multiple sources, and that’s not really a surprise considering the insane number of companies that were funded in the crazy days of 2020 and 2021.

Startups, Venture Capital, Economy, Predictions

9 points by pseudolus 65 days ago | 1 comments

Old Media Wakes Up from a Coma (honest-broker.com)
A little over a year ago, I announced that new media would triumph over old media in 2024. That happened with a vengeance.

Media, Technology, Predictions

6 points by paulpauper 68 days ago | 1 comments

Yann LeCun predicts "new paradigm of AI architectures" within 5 years (techcrunch.com)
Meta’s chief AI scientist, Yann LeCun, says that a “new paradigm of AI architectures” will emerge in the next three to five years, going far beyond the capabilities of existing AI systems.

Artificial Intelligence, Predictions, Technology, Machine Learning

20 points by rar00 68 days ago | 9 comments

How quickly will AI improve? (jasonhanley.com)
A common thread in early 2025 is “AI sucks at X or Y”. For instance, “AI sucks at coding. It introduced a bug and couldn’t even fix it!” Or “AI sucks at image generation. Look at how often it gets the text wrong!”

Artificial Intelligence, Generative AI, Technology, Predictions

8 points by jasonhanley 69 days ago | 13 comments

Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027 (arstechnica.com)
On Tuesday, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicted that AI models may surpass human capabilities "in almost everything" within two to three years, according to a Wall Street Journal interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Artificial Intelligence, Technology, Predictions

25 points by shalabajser 70 days ago | 52 comments

Ask HN: What will be the next trend after AI? (ycombinator.com)
Past big data, ML, Metaverse, crypto, blockchain, and now AI. But what do you believe will be the next trend?

Technology Trends, Artificial Intelligence, Predictions

17 points by vtr1130 71 days ago | 19 comments

By 2028 cloud free companies are going to be most valuable (ycombinator.com)
By 2028 cloud free companies are going to be most valuable

Cloud Computing, Business, Finance, Predictions

10 points by KuriousCat 74 days ago | 3 comments

The Most Impressive Prediction of All Time (youtubetranscriptoptimizer.com)
I've always been impressed when people can truly predict the future. Perhaps it's from my years working as a professional investor at hedge funds, but when someone makes a concrete, explicit prediction— particularly one that is highly contrarian and non-consensus at the time (which is the only way to make truly outsized returns in the market)— I sit up and take notice.

Predictions, Investing, Finance

10 points by eigenvalue 75 days ago | 4 comments

Some things to expect in 2025 (lwn.net)
We are reliably informed by the calendar that yet another year has begun.

Technology, Predictions, Future

258 points by signa11 76 days ago | 180 comments

My subjective notes on the state of AI at the end of 2024 (ycombinator.com)
The AI landscape continues to evolve rapidly. At the end of 2024 I take time to reflect on the current state of AI and make some predictions about the future.

Artificial Intelligence, Trends, Predictions, 2024

5 points by tiendil 76 days ago | 4 comments

Relocating for Tech Jobs in 2025 (ycombinator.com)
Helping software engineers to relocate during my last 12 years and working with various hiring companies (from Japan to Canada), I tried to connect the dots and share my predictions for the job relocation market in 2025.

Tech Jobs, Relocation, Predictions, Hiring

13 points by andrewstetsenko 77 days ago | 16 comments

My AI/LLM predictions for the next 1, 3 and 6 years (simonwillison.net)
The Oxide and Friends podcast has an annual tradition of asking guests to share their predictions for the next 1, 3 and 6 years.

Generative AI, Artificial Intelligence, Predictions, Technology, Podcasts

22 points by azhenley 82 days ago | 6 comments