Half the world population could be diabetic or insulin resistant by 2050
(fortune.com)
Half the world population could be diabetic or insulin resistant by 2050
Half the world population could be diabetic or insulin resistant by 2050
Desperate Times, Desperate Measures
(wheresyoured.at)
Next year is going to be big. Well, I personally don't think it'll be big, but if you ask the AI industry, here's the things that will happen by the end of 2026:
Next year is going to be big. Well, I personally don't think it'll be big, but if you ask the AI industry, here's the things that will happen by the end of 2026:
99% of AI Startups Will Be Dead by 2026 – Here's Why
(medium.com)
99% of AI Startups Will Be Dead by 2026 — Here’s Why
99% of AI Startups Will Be Dead by 2026 — Here’s Why
AI agents in 2025 – what everyone's getting wrong
(reddit.com)
So I'm seeing all these posts about AI agents being the next big thing and how everyone needs to jump on the bandwagon NOW or get left behind. While there's some truth to that, I'm kinda sick of all the misinfo floating around.
So I'm seeing all these posts about AI agents being the next big thing and how everyone needs to jump on the bandwagon NOW or get left behind. While there's some truth to that, I'm kinda sick of all the misinfo floating around.
Timeline of the Far Future
(wikipedia.org)
While the future cannot be predicted with certainty, present understanding in various scientific fields allows for the prediction of some far-future events, if only in the broadest outline.
While the future cannot be predicted with certainty, present understanding in various scientific fields allows for the prediction of some far-future events, if only in the broadest outline.
2025 will likely be another brutal year of failed startups, data suggests
(techcrunch.com)
More startups shut down in 2024 than the year prior, according to multiple sources, and that’s not really a surprise considering the insane number of companies that were funded in the crazy days of 2020 and 2021.
More startups shut down in 2024 than the year prior, according to multiple sources, and that’s not really a surprise considering the insane number of companies that were funded in the crazy days of 2020 and 2021.
Ask HN: What will tech employment look like in 10 years?
(ycombinator.com)
What jobs will become prevalent? Which will become scarce?
What jobs will become prevalent? Which will become scarce?
How are cyber criminals rolling in 2025?
(vin01.github.io)
Speaking of earning a living, would you expect them to pay for web hosting/ cloud providers?
Speaking of earning a living, would you expect them to pay for web hosting/ cloud providers?
Forecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI acceleration
(peterwildeford.substack.com)
About a month ago, METR, an AI evaluations organization, published a bombshell graph and paper that says that AI is accelerating quickly. With OpenAI’s recent launch of o3 and o4-mini, we can see if these predictions hold up.
About a month ago, METR, an AI evaluations organization, published a bombshell graph and paper that says that AI is accelerating quickly. With OpenAI’s recent launch of o3 and o4-mini, we can see if these predictions hold up.
A Realistic AI Timeline
(vintagedata.org)
AI timelines can grow old. Reading through the last highly publicized exercise, it's as if we were stuck in the early 2020s: ever larger models, unlocking ever more impressive emerging capacities. GPT-3 steampunk.
AI timelines can grow old. Reading through the last highly publicized exercise, it's as if we were stuck in the early 2020s: ever larger models, unlocking ever more impressive emerging capacities. GPT-3 steampunk.
AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
(dwarkesh.com)
Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu have 2045+ timelines, think the whole "alignment" framing is wrong, don't think an intelligence explosion is plausible, but are convinced we'll see explosive economic growth.
Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu have 2045+ timelines, think the whole "alignment" framing is wrong, don't think an intelligence explosion is plausible, but are convinced we'll see explosive economic growth.
The Post-Developer Era
(joshwcomeau.com)
Two years ago, in March 2023, I published a blog post called “The End of Front-End Development”. This was right after OpenAI released its GPT-4 showcase, and the general reaction was that human software developers were about to be made redundant, that software would soon be written exclusively by machines.
Two years ago, in March 2023, I published a blog post called “The End of Front-End Development”. This was right after OpenAI released its GPT-4 showcase, and the general reaction was that human software developers were about to be made redundant, that software would soon be written exclusively by machines.
'Something worse than recession' worries predictor of 2008 financial crisis
(nbcnews.com)
Ray Dalio, the founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said Sunday he is "worried about something worse than a recession" if President Donald Trump does not properly handle tariffs and other economic policies.
Ray Dalio, the founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said Sunday he is "worried about something worse than a recession" if President Donald Trump does not properly handle tariffs and other economic policies.
The End of Children
(newyorker.com)
Societies do collapse, sometimes suddenly. Nevertheless, prophets of doom might keep in mind that their darkest predictions have been, on the whole, a little premature.
Societies do collapse, sometimes suddenly. Nevertheless, prophets of doom might keep in mind that their darkest predictions have been, on the whole, a little premature.
AI 2027: Responses
(thezvi.substack.com)
Yesterday I covered Dwarkesh Patel’s excellent podcast coverage of AI 2027 with Daniel Kokotajlo and Scott Alexander. Today covers the reactions of others.
Yesterday I covered Dwarkesh Patel’s excellent podcast coverage of AI 2027 with Daniel Kokotajlo and Scott Alexander. Today covers the reactions of others.
Tesla's Plummeting Stock Just Hit a Level That Lutnick Said Would 'Never' Happen
(thedailybeast.com)
Tesla’s stock has plummeted to a new low only three weeks after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick advised Americans to buy it because “it’ll never be this cheap again.”
Tesla’s stock has plummeted to a new low only three weeks after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick advised Americans to buy it because “it’ll never be this cheap again.”
12 Graphs That Explain the State of AI in 2025
(ieee.org)
If you read the news about AI, you may feel bombarded with conflicting messages: AI is booming. AI is a bubble. AI’s current techniques and architectures will keep producing breakthroughs. AI is on an unsustainable path and needs radical new ideas. AI is going to take your job. AI is mostly good for turning your family photos into Studio Ghibli-style animated images.
If you read the news about AI, you may feel bombarded with conflicting messages: AI is booming. AI is a bubble. AI’s current techniques and architectures will keep producing breakthroughs. AI is on an unsustainable path and needs radical new ideas. AI is going to take your job. AI is mostly good for turning your family photos into Studio Ghibli-style animated images.
Welcome to the Semantic Apocalypse
(theintrinsicperspective.com)
An awful personal prophecy is coming true. Way back in 2019, when AI was still a relatively niche topic, and only the primitive GPT-2 had been released, I predicted the technology would usher in a “semantic apocalypse” wherein art and language were drained of meaning. In fact, it was the first essay ever posted here on The Intrinsic Perspective.
An awful personal prophecy is coming true. Way back in 2019, when AI was still a relatively niche topic, and only the primitive GPT-2 had been released, I predicted the technology would usher in a “semantic apocalypse” wherein art and language were drained of meaning. In fact, it was the first essay ever posted here on The Intrinsic Perspective.
AI 2027
(ai-2027.com)
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
Five Things AI Will Not Change
(metastable.org)
In 1983, when I was ten, 100 million people watched the TV movie “The Day After,” an audience five times larger than the Game of Thrones finale garnered in 2019. The cold-war era film graphically depicted the aftermath of an all-out nuclear exchange between the United States and the Soviet Union: mass casualties, radiation poisoning, the collapse of infrastructure, and the breakdown of society.
In 1983, when I was ten, 100 million people watched the TV movie “The Day After,” an audience five times larger than the Game of Thrones finale garnered in 2019. The cold-war era film graphically depicted the aftermath of an all-out nuclear exchange between the United States and the Soviet Union: mass casualties, radiation poisoning, the collapse of infrastructure, and the breakdown of society.
Might Be Time for Me to Collect Being Right Points for My Bluesky Prediction
(daringfireball.net)
Yours truly back in May 2023, in a thread on Mastodon (at the time, you needed an invitation code to get into Bluesky, and it was just a few months after Musk’s takeover and remaking of what was once Twitter):
Yours truly back in May 2023, in a thread on Mastodon (at the time, you needed an invitation code to get into Bluesky, and it was just a few months after Musk’s takeover and remaking of what was once Twitter):
Angelina Jolie Was Right About Computers
(wired.com)
“RISC architecture is gonna change everything.” Those absurdly geeky, incredibly prophetic words were spoken 30 years ago. Today, they’re somehow truer than ever.
“RISC architecture is gonna change everything.” Those absurdly geeky, incredibly prophetic words were spoken 30 years ago. Today, they’re somehow truer than ever.
No one knows what the hell an AI agent is
(techcrunch.com)
Silicon Valley is bullish on AI agents. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said agents will “join the workforce” this year. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella predicted that agents will replace certain knowledge work. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said that Salesforce’s goal is to be “the number one provider of digital labor in the world” via the company’s various “agentic” services.
Silicon Valley is bullish on AI agents. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said agents will “join the workforce” this year. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella predicted that agents will replace certain knowledge work. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said that Salesforce’s goal is to be “the number one provider of digital labor in the world” via the company’s various “agentic” services.
Dario Amodei: "In 12 months, nearly all code may be generated by AI."
(twitter.com)
Something went wrong, but don’t fret — let’s give it another shot.
Something went wrong, but don’t fret — let’s give it another shot.
A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress
(lesswrong.com)
This isn't really a "timeline", as such – I don't know the timings – but this is my current, fairly optimistic take on where we're heading.
This isn't really a "timeline", as such – I don't know the timings – but this is my current, fairly optimistic take on where we're heading.
Bitcoin Without a Fight
(loeber.substack.com)
Dial the clock back by thirteen years. It’s the spring of 2012. Bitcoin is trading at five dollars a coin. You ask me “what would the world look like at $100,000 a coin?” When Bitcoin is 20,000 times more valuable? It’s unimaginable. Maybe the financial systems of some small countries have failed, and been taken over completely by Bitcoin. Surely it has become a popular currency.
Dial the clock back by thirteen years. It’s the spring of 2012. Bitcoin is trading at five dollars a coin. You ask me “what would the world look like at $100,000 a coin?” When Bitcoin is 20,000 times more valuable? It’s unimaginable. Maybe the financial systems of some small countries have failed, and been taken over completely by Bitcoin. Surely it has become a popular currency.
Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP
(atlantafed.org)
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28.
The Drift of Things: David Goodman Croly's Glimpses of the Future (1888)
(publicdomainreview.org)
After the Irish-American journalist David Goodman Croly successfully predicted the Panic of 1873 and the results of several political elections, he hung up his newspaperman’s hat and went into the forecasting business.
After the Irish-American journalist David Goodman Croly successfully predicted the Panic of 1873 and the results of several political elections, he hung up his newspaperman’s hat and went into the forecasting business.
Stephen Diehl: The Case Against Crypto in 2025
(stephendiehl.com)
In 2020, I wrote what became a widely-circulated critique of cryptocurrency and its implications for our financial system. At the time, I desperately hoped to be proven wrong. As a technologist who deeply believes in the potential of technology to strengthen democratic institutions, I took no pleasure in forecasting the corrosive potential of crypto assets. Unfortunately, the intervening years have borne out many of my predictions with shocking prescience.
In 2020, I wrote what became a widely-circulated critique of cryptocurrency and its implications for our financial system. At the time, I desperately hoped to be proven wrong. As a technologist who deeply believes in the potential of technology to strengthen democratic institutions, I took no pleasure in forecasting the corrosive potential of crypto assets. Unfortunately, the intervening years have borne out many of my predictions with shocking prescience.