Hacker News with Generative AI: Predictions

Forecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI acceleration (peterwildeford.substack.com)
About a month ago, METR, an AI evaluations organization, published a bombshell graph and paper that says that AI is accelerating quickly. With OpenAI’s recent launch of o3 and o4-mini, we can see if these predictions hold up.
Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Research, Predictions, OpenAI
49 points by nopinsight 4 days ago | 74 comments
The Computer Revolution Hasn't Happened Yet (1997) [video] (youtube.com)
Technology, History, Predictions
31 points by ColinWright 8 days ago | 7 comments
A Realistic AI Timeline (vintagedata.org)
AI timelines can grow old. Reading through the last highly publicized exercise, it's as if we were stuck in the early 2020s: ever larger models, unlocking ever more impressive emerging capacities. GPT-3 steampunk.
Artificial Intelligence, AI, Technology, Predictions
19 points by simonpure 8 days ago | 7 comments
AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu (dwarkesh.com)
Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu have 2045+ timelines, think the whole "alignment" framing is wrong, don't think an intelligence explosion is plausible, but are convinced we'll see explosive economic growth.
Artificial Intelligence, Predictions, Economics
174 points by Philpax 9 days ago | 375 comments
The Post-Developer Era (joshwcomeau.com)
Two years ago, in March 2023, I published a blog post called “The End of Front-End Development”. This was right after OpenAI released its GPT-4 showcase, and the general reaction was that human software developers were about to be made redundant, that software would soon be written exclusively by machines.
Generative AI, Software Development, Predictions
79 points by thm 11 days ago | 68 comments
'Something worse than recession' worries predictor of 2008 financial crisis (nbcnews.com)
Ray Dalio, the founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said Sunday he is "worried about something worse than a recession" if President Donald Trump does not properly handle tariffs and other economic policies.
Economy, Financial Crisis, Predictions, Politics
20 points by MilnerRoute 12 days ago | 2 comments
The End of Children (newyorker.com)
Societies do collapse, sometimes suddenly. Nevertheless, prophets of doom might keep in mind that their darkest predictions have been, on the whole, a little premature.
Society, Predictions, Collapse
22 points by mefengl 14 days ago | 6 comments
AI 2027: Responses (thezvi.substack.com)
Yesterday I covered Dwarkesh Patel’s excellent podcast coverage of AI 2027 with Daniel Kokotajlo and Scott Alexander. Today covers the reactions of others.
Artificial Intelligence, Predictions, Podcasts, Substack
3 points by paulpauper 18 days ago | 0 comments
Tesla's Plummeting Stock Just Hit a Level That Lutnick Said Would 'Never' Happen (thedailybeast.com)
Tesla’s stock has plummeted to a new low only three weeks after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick advised Americans to buy it because “it’ll never be this cheap again.”
Tesla, Stock Market, Finance, Predictions
18 points by doener 18 days ago | 10 comments
12 Graphs That Explain the State of AI in 2025 (ieee.org)
If you read the news about AI, you may feel bombarded with conflicting messages: AI is booming. AI is a bubble. AI’s current techniques and architectures will keep producing breakthroughs. AI is on an unsustainable path and needs radical new ideas. AI is going to take your job. AI is mostly good for turning your family photos into Studio Ghibli-style animated images.
Artificial Intelligence, Predictions, Trends, Technology, Data Visualization
4 points by sohkamyung 18 days ago | 1 comments
Welcome to the Semantic Apocalypse (theintrinsicperspective.com)
An awful personal prophecy is coming true. Way back in 2019, when AI was still a relatively niche topic, and only the primitive GPT-2 had been released, I predicted the technology would usher in a “semantic apocalypse” wherein art and language were drained of meaning. In fact, it was the first essay ever posted here on The Intrinsic Perspective.
Artificial Intelligence, Language Models, Predictions, Art
7 points by paulpauper 22 days ago | 2 comments
AI 2027 (ai-2027.com)
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
Artificial Intelligence, Predictions, Future, Technology
949 points by Tenoke 23 days ago | 620 comments
Five Things AI Will Not Change (metastable.org)
In 1983, when I was ten, 100 million people watched the TV movie “The Day After,” an audience five times larger than the Game of Thrones finale garnered in 2019. The cold-war era film graphically depicted the aftermath of an all-out nuclear exchange between the United States and the Soviet Union: mass casualties, radiation poisoning, the collapse of infrastructure, and the breakdown of society.
Artificial Intelligence, Culture, Predictions, Technology
14 points by pbw 30 days ago | 4 comments
Might Be Time for Me to Collect Being Right Points for My Bluesky Prediction (daringfireball.net)
Yours truly back in May 2023, in a thread on Mastodon (at the time, you needed an invitation code to get into Bluesky, and it was just a few months after Musk’s takeover and remaking of what was once Twitter):
Social Media, Predictions, Twitter, Bluesky
11 points by hn1986 31 days ago | 0 comments
Angelina Jolie Was Right About Computers (wired.com)
“RISC architecture is gonna change everything.” Those absurdly geeky, incredibly prophetic words were spoken 30 years ago. Today, they’re somehow truer than ever.
Technology, History, Computing, Predictions, Angelina Jolie
21 points by vdupras 32 days ago | 2 comments
No one knows what the hell an AI agent is (techcrunch.com)
Silicon Valley is bullish on AI agents. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said agents will “join the workforce” this year. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella predicted that agents will replace certain knowledge work. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said that Salesforce’s goal is to be “the number one provider of digital labor in the world” via the company’s various “agentic” services.
Artificial Intelligence, Business, Predictions, Technology
31 points by marban 42 days ago | 14 comments
Dario Amodei: "In 12 months, nearly all code may be generated by AI." (twitter.com)
Something went wrong, but don’t fret — let’s give it another shot.
Artificial Intelligence, Programming, Predictions
6 points by bblcla 46 days ago | 10 comments
A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress (lesswrong.com)
This isn't really a "timeline", as such – I don't know the timings – but this is my current, fairly optimistic take on where we're heading.
Artificial Intelligence, Predictions
204 points by suryao 47 days ago | 215 comments
Bitcoin Without a Fight (loeber.substack.com)
Dial the clock back by thirteen years. It’s the spring of 2012. Bitcoin is trading at five dollars a coin. You ask me “what would the world look like at $100,000 a coin?” When Bitcoin is 20,000 times more valuable? It’s unimaginable. Maybe the financial systems of some small countries have failed, and been taken over completely by Bitcoin. Surely it has become a popular currency.
Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Finance, Speculation, Predictions
13 points by n0rlant1s 48 days ago | 3 comments
Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP (atlantafed.org)
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28.
Economy, GDP, Predictions, Atlanta Fed
219 points by awnird 54 days ago | 248 comments
The Drift of Things: David Goodman Croly's Glimpses of the Future (1888) (publicdomainreview.org)
After the Irish-American journalist David Goodman Croly successfully predicted the Panic of 1873 and the results of several political elections, he hung up his newspaperman’s hat and went into the forecasting business.
History, Journalism, Predictions, 19th Century
10 points by benbreen 55 days ago | 1 comments
Stephen Diehl: The Case Against Crypto in 2025 (stephendiehl.com)
In 2020, I wrote what became a widely-circulated critique of cryptocurrency and its implications for our financial system. At the time, I desperately hoped to be proven wrong. As a technologist who deeply believes in the potential of technology to strengthen democratic institutions, I took no pleasure in forecasting the corrosive potential of crypto assets. Unfortunately, the intervening years have borne out many of my predictions with shocking prescience.
Cryptocurrency, Finance, Technology, Predictions
12 points by colesantiago 55 days ago | 4 comments
Elon Musk fans believe he can make Dogecoin the currency of Earth (arstechnica.com)
At a time when many analysts are declaring memecoins dead, the most popular memecoin of all time, Dogecoin, not only perseveres but appears likely to become more mainstream than ever in 2025.
Cryptocurrency, Dogecoin, Elon Musk, Finance, Predictions
10 points by LorenDB 57 days ago | 8 comments
Project 2025 Observer (project2025.observer)
Project 2025 Tracker
Project Management, Future, Predictions
190 points by napolux 67 days ago | 57 comments
I use AI to predict the future (gwintrob.com)
I compete in an annual predictions contest with a group of friends. Each January, we make a series of guesses about the economy, politics, etc. to see who is most accurate at the end of the year. Beyond the cash prize, the winner gets a green Masters jacket and the loser has to give a short presentation on how they made their predictions.
Artificial Intelligence, Predictions, Competitions, Friends, Economy
6 points by gwintrob 73 days ago | 0 comments
Orienting to 3 year AGI timelines (lesswrong.com)
Artificial Intelligence, Timelines, Predictions
4 points by paulpauper 75 days ago | 0 comments
Datacenter energy use to more than double by 2030 thanks AI's insatiable thirst (theregister.com)
AI's thirst for electricity will see datacenter energy use more than double by the end of the decade – just five years from now – according to the latest forecast from investment banker Goldman Sachs.
Artificial Intelligence, Energy, Datacenters, Predictions
3 points by LinuxBender 77 days ago | 0 comments
Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995) (openculture.com)
Carl Sagan, Predictions, American Culture, History
152 points by rcarmo 80 days ago | 164 comments
Ask HN: What do you expect will be the real impact of AI on society in 10 years (ycombinator.com)
I started to get more curious on this, especially beyond the obligatory “genAI will do everything.” What are your thoughts on societal impact.
Artificial Intelligence, Society, Future, Technology, Predictions
16 points by doubtfuluser 82 days ago | 26 comments
Black Swan author warns of future selloffs 2-3 times worse than DeepSeek shock (fortune.com)
Finance, Predictions, Market Analysis, Investment, Economics
5 points by this_weekend 82 days ago | 2 comments