Hacker News with Generative AI: Forecasting

Recession Watch (calculatedriskblog.com)
I am going on "recession watch" for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I've been writing this blog.

Economy, Recession, Forecasting

21 points by b_emery 20 days ago | 3 comments

GDPNow first quarter of 2025: -2.8% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) (atlantafed.org)
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26.

Economics, GDP, Forecasting

15 points by nabla9 28 days ago | 7 comments

Recession is coming before end of 2025, corporate CFOs say (cnbc.com)

Economics, Finance, Business, Forecasting

7 points by belter 29 days ago | 5 comments

GdpNow real GDP growth estimate -1.5% for Q1 2025 (atlantafed.org)
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19.

Economics, GDP, Forecasting

5 points by noitanigami 57 days ago | 1 comments

Q1 GDP Forecast -1.5% (atlantafed.org)
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19.

Economics, GDP, Forecasting

8 points by contemporary343 57 days ago | 1 comments

How big is the AI Agents market? (reddit.com)
By 2034, the global market for Conversational AI and Virtual Agents is anticipated to reach approximately USD 13.7 billion, up from USD 168.2 billion in 2024, with a projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 28.50% from 2025 to 2034.

Artificial Intelligence, Market Analysis, Business, Technology, Forecasting

4 points by bobheadmaker 75 days ago | 0 comments

30 years ago Tomorrow's World predicted 2025 – how did it do? (bbc.co.uk)
In 1995, the BBC's Tomorrow's World programme decided to predict what the world would look like 30 years later, in 2025.

Technology, Forecasting, Television, History, Future

15 points by chgs 115 days ago | 4 comments

Africa will have some of the fastest-growing economies in 2025 (economist.com)
Several fast-growing economies show that not everyone is having a lost decade

Africa, Economy, Economic Growth, Forecasting, 2025

7 points by paulpauper 125 days ago | 0 comments

States have a shelf life of about 200 years (wordpress.com)
I gave a talk on collapse earlier this autumn to the community of futurists that is co-ordinated by DEFRA, the British government’s Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. It was based on an article I wrote earlier this year, and discussed here in March. The presentation slides are linked at the end of this post.

Politics, History, Collapse, Forecasting

15 points by surprisetalk 130 days ago | 0 comments

OPEC Makes Deepest Cut yet to 2024 World Oil Demand Forecast (bloomberg.com)
OPEC cut oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next for a fifth straight month, making its deepest reduction to the 2024 outlook so far after agreeing to extend its supply curbs.

Oil, Economics, OPEC, Energy, Forecasting

3 points by toomuchtodo 136 days ago | 2 comments

GenCast Predicts Weather with Accuracy (deepmind.google)
New AI model advances the prediction of weather uncertainties and risks, delivering faster, more accurate forecasts up to 15 days ahead

Artificial Intelligence, Weather, Forecasting

23 points by xnx 143 days ago | 1 comments

A Bird Flu Pandemic Would Be One of the Most Foreseeable Catastrophes in History (nytimes.com)
Almost five years after Covid blew into our lives, the main thing standing between us and the next global pandemic is luck. And with the advent of flu season, that luck may well be running out.

Pandemics, Public Health, Science, Avian Flu, Forecasting

12 points by Anon84 146 days ago | 2 comments

Peak population may be coming sooner than we think (ft.com)
Peak population may be coming sooner than we think

Demographics, Population Growth, Forecasting, Global Trends, Sustainability

29 points by maxilevi 166 days ago | 26 comments

10-Year Narratives (splits.org)
Jeff Bezos famously said it’s more important to know what will not change over the next ten years, versus what will.

Business, Technology, Future, Predictions, Forecasting

7 points by exolymph 200 days ago | 0 comments

Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting (lesswrong.com)
Recently we have seen a number of papers – (Schoenegger et al., 2024, Halawi et al., 2024, Phan et al., 2024, Hsieh et al., 2024) – with claims that boil down to “we built an LLM-powered forecaster that rivals human forecasters or even shows superhuman performance”.

Artificial Intelligence, Forecasting, Research

10 points by paulpauper 225 days ago | 0 comments

The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns [pdf] (2023) (federalreserve.gov)

Economics, Finance, Investment, Stock Market, Forecasting

132 points by luu 234 days ago | 142 comments

If temps do not stabilize by 8/2024, world in uncharted territory (nature.com)

Climate Change, Global Warming, Environmental Science, Future, Forecasting

19 points by westcort 270 days ago | 5 comments

I don't buy 538's new election model (natesilver.net)

Politics, Elections, Data Analysis, Forecasting

32 points by nkurz 280 days ago | 31 comments

TSMC CEO predicts AI chip shortage through 2025 (theregister.com)