Don't Look at Stock Markets. Look at the Ports
(theatlantic.com)
A drop in maritime traffic suggests that the worst is yet to come.
A drop in maritime traffic suggests that the worst is yet to come.
America may be just weeks away from a mighty economic shock
(economist.com)
America may be just weeks away from a mighty economic shock
America may be just weeks away from a mighty economic shock
Recession Watch
(calculatedriskblog.com)
I am going on "recession watch" for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I've been writing this blog.
I am going on "recession watch" for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I've been writing this blog.
GDPNow first quarter of 2025: -2.8% (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
(atlantafed.org)
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26.
GdpNow real GDP growth estimate -1.5% for Q1 2025
(atlantafed.org)
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19.
Q1 GDP Forecast -1.5%
(atlantafed.org)
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19.
How big is the AI Agents market?
(reddit.com)
By 2034, the global market for Conversational AI and Virtual Agents is anticipated to reach approximately USD 13.7 billion, up from USD 168.2 billion in 2024, with a projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 28.50% from 2025 to 2034.
By 2034, the global market for Conversational AI and Virtual Agents is anticipated to reach approximately USD 13.7 billion, up from USD 168.2 billion in 2024, with a projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 28.50% from 2025 to 2034.
30 years ago Tomorrow's World predicted 2025 – how did it do?
(bbc.co.uk)
In 1995, the BBC's Tomorrow's World programme decided to predict what the world would look like 30 years later, in 2025.
In 1995, the BBC's Tomorrow's World programme decided to predict what the world would look like 30 years later, in 2025.
Africa will have some of the fastest-growing economies in 2025
(economist.com)
Several fast-growing economies show that not everyone is having a lost decade
Several fast-growing economies show that not everyone is having a lost decade
States have a shelf life of about 200 years
(wordpress.com)
I gave a talk on collapse earlier this autumn to the community of futurists that is co-ordinated by DEFRA, the British government’s Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. It was based on an article I wrote earlier this year, and discussed here in March. The presentation slides are linked at the end of this post.
I gave a talk on collapse earlier this autumn to the community of futurists that is co-ordinated by DEFRA, the British government’s Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. It was based on an article I wrote earlier this year, and discussed here in March. The presentation slides are linked at the end of this post.
OPEC Makes Deepest Cut yet to 2024 World Oil Demand Forecast
(bloomberg.com)
OPEC cut oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next for a fifth straight month, making its deepest reduction to the 2024 outlook so far after agreeing to extend its supply curbs.
OPEC cut oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next for a fifth straight month, making its deepest reduction to the 2024 outlook so far after agreeing to extend its supply curbs.
GenCast Predicts Weather with Accuracy
(deepmind.google)
New AI model advances the prediction of weather uncertainties and risks, delivering faster, more accurate forecasts up to 15 days ahead
New AI model advances the prediction of weather uncertainties and risks, delivering faster, more accurate forecasts up to 15 days ahead
A Bird Flu Pandemic Would Be One of the Most Foreseeable Catastrophes in History
(nytimes.com)
Almost five years after Covid blew into our lives, the main thing standing between us and the next global pandemic is luck. And with the advent of flu season, that luck may well be running out.
Almost five years after Covid blew into our lives, the main thing standing between us and the next global pandemic is luck. And with the advent of flu season, that luck may well be running out.
Peak population may be coming sooner than we think
(ft.com)
Peak population may be coming sooner than we think
Peak population may be coming sooner than we think
10-Year Narratives
(splits.org)
Jeff Bezos famously said it’s more important to know what will not change over the next ten years, versus what will.
Jeff Bezos famously said it’s more important to know what will not change over the next ten years, versus what will.
Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting
(lesswrong.com)
Recently we have seen a number of papers – (Schoenegger et al., 2024, Halawi et al., 2024, Phan et al., 2024, Hsieh et al., 2024) – with claims that boil down to “we built an LLM-powered forecaster that rivals human forecasters or even shows superhuman performance”.
Recently we have seen a number of papers – (Schoenegger et al., 2024, Halawi et al., 2024, Phan et al., 2024, Hsieh et al., 2024) – with claims that boil down to “we built an LLM-powered forecaster that rivals human forecasters or even shows superhuman performance”.