Hacker News with Generative AI: Prediction Markets

Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market (nodumbideas.com)
Like many people, I’ve been sad to hear about Pope Francis' illness and wish him a speedy recovery. As I read the latest updates, I had an intrusive thought: is there already a prediction market on his health? I’m sorry to report that yes there is.
Pope Francis, Prediction Markets, History
145 points by nodumbideas 25 days ago | 80 comments
Making Markets on Kalshi (rlafuente.com)
Markets, Prediction Markets, Finance
56 points by andes314 44 days ago | 26 comments
Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance") (birdflurisk.com)
Bird Flu, Public Health, Prediction Markets, Data Visualization
30 points by nathan_young 84 days ago | 4 comments
Chess BLITZ tournament breaks polymarket markets (ycombinator.com)
A unique situation has emerged at the intersection of chess and prediction markets following a recent blitz tournament in New York.
Chess, Prediction Markets, Sports
5 points by tuganbaev 91 days ago | 1 comments
The death and life of prediction markets at Google (asteriskmag.com)
Over the past two decades, Google has hosted two different internal platforms for predictions. Why did the first one fail — and will the other endure?
Google, Prediction Markets, Business, Technology, Failure
273 points by mfro 141 days ago | 174 comments
From prediction markets to info finance (eth.limo)
One of the Ethereum applications that has always excited me the most are prediction markets.
Ethereum, Decentralized Finance, Prediction Markets
6 points by surprisetalk 143 days ago | 0 comments
Congrats to Polymarket, but I Still Think They Were Mispriced (astralcodexten.com)
Polymarket (and prediction markets in general) had an amazing Election Night. They called states impressively early and accurately, kept the site stable through what must have been incredible strain, and have successfully gotten prediction markets in front of the world (including the Trump campaign). From here it’s a flywheel; victory building on victory. Enough people heard of them this election that they’ll never lack for customers.
Politics, Prediction Markets, Business
5 points by impish9208 146 days ago | 0 comments
Pm-AMM: A Uniform Automated Market Maker for Prediction Markets (paradigm.xyz)
In this post, we introduce a new automated market maker (AMM) customized for prediction markets: the pm-AMM.
Prediction Markets
57 points by felixbraun 147 days ago | 0 comments
US Election prediction markets diverge from poll-based models (ft.com)
US election betting markets have been having a moment.
US Elections, Prediction Markets, Polling, Finance
10 points by foweltschmerz 162 days ago | 0 comments
The prediction platform Metaculus is open source now (github.com/Metaculus)
This is the codebase for the rewritten main Metaculus website, it's expected to be live in October.
Open Source, Prediction Markets, Software
9 points by avionical 176 days ago | 0 comments