Hacker News with Generative AI: Prediction Markets

The death and life of prediction markets at Google (asteriskmag.com)
Over the past two decades, Google has hosted two different internal platforms for predictions. Why did the first one fail — and will the other endure?
Google, Prediction Markets, Business, Technology, Failure
273 points by mfro 10 days ago | 174 comments
From prediction markets to info finance (eth.limo)
One of the Ethereum applications that has always excited me the most are prediction markets.
Ethereum, Decentralized Finance, Prediction Markets
6 points by surprisetalk 11 days ago | 0 comments
Congrats to Polymarket, but I Still Think They Were Mispriced (astralcodexten.com)
Polymarket (and prediction markets in general) had an amazing Election Night. They called states impressively early and accurately, kept the site stable through what must have been incredible strain, and have successfully gotten prediction markets in front of the world (including the Trump campaign). From here it’s a flywheel; victory building on victory. Enough people heard of them this election that they’ll never lack for customers.
Politics, Prediction Markets, Business
5 points by impish9208 14 days ago | 0 comments
Pm-AMM: A Uniform Automated Market Maker for Prediction Markets (paradigm.xyz)
In this post, we introduce a new automated market maker (AMM) customized for prediction markets: the pm-AMM.
Prediction Markets
57 points by felixbraun 15 days ago | 0 comments
US Election prediction markets diverge from poll-based models (ft.com)
US election betting markets have been having a moment.
US Elections, Prediction Markets, Polling, Finance
10 points by foweltschmerz 30 days ago | 0 comments
The prediction platform Metaculus is open source now (github.com/Metaculus)
This is the codebase for the rewritten main Metaculus website, it's expected to be live in October.
Open Source, Prediction Markets, Software
9 points by avionical 45 days ago | 0 comments