Hacker News with Generative AI: Polling

The Blowout No One Sees Coming (vantagedatahouse.com)
Pollsters are expected to be fortune tellers. We’re often asked, “what’s going to happen in the election?” Credible pollsters’ predictions are grounded in reliable data and an understanding of voting behavior, not wishful thinking or reinforcing currently held perceptions. The current prevailing narrative about the U.S. Presidential race is that it’s tight–too close to call. The reality is this race is breaking for the Harris-Walz ticket.
US Election prediction markets diverge from poll-based models (ft.com)
US election betting markets have been having a moment.
Who Governs Britain (In 2029)? (edwest.co.uk)
The Starmer government’s popularity slide continues, and it’s an impressive achievement that, considering everything, they have managed to get the Tories back on level pegging in the polls after just three months.