The man who predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022)
(medium.com)
In late November the United States briefed allied intelligence and military leaders about Putin’s plan to invade Ukraine.
In late November the United States briefed allied intelligence and military leaders about Putin’s plan to invade Ukraine.
Why I think AI take-off is relatively slow
(marginalrevolution.com)
I’ve already covered much of this in my podcast with Dwarkesh, but I thought it would be useful to write it all out in one place. I’ll assume you already know the current state of the debate. Here goes:
I’ve already covered much of this in my podcast with Dwarkesh, but I thought it would be useful to write it all out in one place. I’ll assume you already know the current state of the debate. Here goes:
LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future
(arxiv.org)
We present an outcome-driven fine-tuning framework that enhances the forecasting capabilities of large language models (LLMs) without relying on human-curated reasoning samples.
We present an outcome-driven fine-tuning framework that enhances the forecasting capabilities of large language models (LLMs) without relying on human-curated reasoning samples.
A new way to determine whether a species will successfully invade an ecosystem
(news.mit.edu)
When a new species is introduced into an ecosystem, it may succeed in establishing itself, or it may fail to gain a foothold and die out. Physicists at MIT have now devised a formula that can predict which of those outcomes is most likely.
When a new species is introduced into an ecosystem, it may succeed in establishing itself, or it may fail to gain a foothold and die out. Physicists at MIT have now devised a formula that can predict which of those outcomes is most likely.